Xaxas
13.12.2025
If your Pick'ems coin made it out of Stage 3 alive, the Budapest Major quarterfinals were where it finally met reality.
Four matches. Two massive upsets. One favorite absolutely dismantled. And by the end of Day 2, the playoff bracket looked nothing like what most fans - including us - had locked in.
Let's break down the quarterfinals with a focus on the surprises, and then review what our Pick'ems got right, what they got wrong, and what hindsight painfully clarified.
On paper, Spirit advancing over Falcons wasn't an upset. In practice, how they did it rewrote expectations.
Ivan "zweih" Gogin delivered a breakout Major playoff performance, anchoring Nuke with authority and helping Spirit claw back from a 5-11 deficit on Dust2 to win in overtime. Alongside him, donk finally exorcised his NiKo-and-m0NESY demons, breaking a nine-series losing streak against that duo.
Falcons' stars simply didn't show up. NiKo flashed early. m0NESY faded - again - on the biggest stage. Spirit didn't just win; they looked ready to win the Major.
Hindsight takeaway: Our pick was right, but we underestimated Spirit's depth. This wasn't a donk carry - it was a complete team arriving early.
If anyone was expecting another miracle run from The MongolZ, Vitality shut that door immediately.
Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut put on one of the most dominant Major quarterfinal performances in recent memory, finishing the series with a 2.18 rating and a Mirage T side that bordered on unfair. The MongolZ never found their footing, and their Stage 3 momentum evaporated under disciplined pressure.
No upset. No scare. Just championship-level Counter-Strike.
Hindsight takeaway: We correctly trusted experience, structure, and a superstar who refuses to lose quarterfinals.
This is where the Pick'ems started bleeding.
We backed MOUZ: home crowd, cleaner structure, better consistency. What we didn't fully account for was FaZe's refusal to die.
After being milliseconds from elimination in Stage 1, FaZe now look reborn. broky, heavily criticized all year, exploded against MOUZ with a 1.62 rating and vintage AWP impact. Nuke slipped away late. Inferno wasn't competitive.
The crowd couldn't save MOUZ. FaZe's pedigree did.
Hindsight takeaway: Never bet against FaZe once they survive the early stages of a Major. Momentum plus experience beats comfort every time.
This was the gut punch.
World #1 FURIA. FalleN chasing history. Our predicted champion - out in the quarterfinals.
NAVI delivered one of the most impressive tactical upsets of the year. Even after blowing a 10-3 lead on Inferno and eating a brutal FalleN 1v3 clutch, Aleksib's squad reset mentally and obliterated FURIA 13-3 on Train.
w0nderful played like a superstar. makazze announced himself on the biggest stage. And FURIA's rookie sniper molodoy cracked under pressure, posting a 0.81 rating in the series.
This wasn't a fluke - it was preparation meeting vulnerability.
Hindsight takeaway: We overvalued FURIA's season-long stability and undervalued NAVI's ceiling in a single-elimination Major playoff.
Spirit over Falcons
Vitality over The MongolZ
MOUZ over FaZe → Experience gap punished
FURIA over NAVI → Tactical masterclass dismantled the favorites
Champion Pick: FURIA
Eliminated in quarters, sending the entire Pick'ems path into the abyss.
The Budapest Major quarterfinals reminded us why Pick'ems are cruel:
Form beats ranking
Momentum beats comfort
Preparation beats pressure
And Majors do not care about narratives
Two upsets were enough to blow the bracket wide open. FaZe and NAVI - both written off earlier in the tournament - now stand two wins away from a Major final.
If Stage 3 was chaos, the quarterfinals were clarity: only teams that adapt under pressure survive.
And if your coin turned grey here?
You weren't alone.
Xaxas
13.12.2025
Article TAGS
News Feed
The final CS2 Major of the year is here, and with three Swiss stages before playoffs, the Budapest Major is a Pick’ems minefield.
Spirit and Vitality anchor the safest IEM Krakow playoff bracket while quarter-final volatility creates crucial decision points that separate conservative Pick'ems strategies from aggressive leaderboard climbers.
Spirit and Vitality clash in a battle of confidence versus discipline, while FaZe and NAVI deliver the ultimate survivors' derby - four teams, two finals spots, and Pick'ems predictions hanging by a thread in Budapest's chaotic semifinals.
FURIA and Falcons look unstoppable heading into the Budapest Major while Vitality's round conversion problems continue to haunt them despite reaching another semifinal.
ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 2 opens with G2, MOUZ, Spirit, and MongolZ storming to 2-0, while FaZe's back-to-back defeats and a stunning paiN upset leave the European giants staring down elimination pressure.
HLTV's consistency-based rankings miss the full story of 2025. Gocore's medal-first approach reshuffles the Top 10 CS2 teams, prioritizing championship moments and peak performances that defined the year's competitive narrative.
As the CS2 projections shift toward the final stretch of 2025, one thing is clear: Brazil is back on top of the Counter-Strike world.
The Esports Awards 2025 in Las Vegas delivered a big night for Counter-Strike 2. Mathieu “ZywOo” Herbaut won Best PC Esports Player, and Team Vitality earned Esports Team of the Year.
Eight elite teams remain in Budapest, and your Pick'ems coin faces its ultimate test with NiKo vs donk rematches, FalleN's final chase, and home crowd MOUZ creating the most unpredictable Major playoffs bracket in years.
Just four days after sweeping Vitality 3-0 in the IEM Chengdu Grand Final, FURIA have beaten the Europeans again, this time 2-1 in the BLAST Rivals 2025 Season 2.